Ask CARE what a dollar of its work buys, and until recently the answer has been coming from single- project cost studies, one at a time. That is not new for us. CARE is a founding member of the Dioptra Consortium, and we have been generating cost-per-output and per-outcome evidence for as long as the sector has been asking for it. What is new is what we are now asking of that evidence.
The sector’s question is shifting. Two decades of focused research produced a real answer to “does this work per dollar?” Now, as aid budgets shrink faster than needs, the pressure has sharpened. Programs must be efficient, effective, AND affordable. Affordability is the test every scaling pathway runs through, because someone must carry the cost once philanthropy exits: whether a government ministry or a market, who can afford to keep doing this? That shift is pulling three moves through the way we work:
- From cost-effective to affordable, as the frame for whether an intervention has a future;
- From backward-looking cost studies to forward-designing, so a proposal gets pressure-tested before it is written rather than reconstructed at closeout;
- From one study at a time to system-wide, benchmarked evidence across more than 500 CARE projects in 121 countries. So, we are laying different pipe.
Why we are doing this, and why now
Cost-effectiveness at CARE is not a donor accountability exercise. It is a design tool, and it answers a specific problem. Philanthropy can fund a program. Only two things can sustain one at scale: a government budget that absorbs it, or a market mechanism that carries it. When a proven model is cheap enough for a ministry to defend, or commercially viable enough for the private sector to adopt, that handover is what makes the impact outlive the grant. That transition is the thing CARE exists to unlock.
Every cost and cost-effectiveness figure we produce answers one question: will this deliver more long-term impact per dollar than the next best option, and is the cost-per-output or per-outcome low enough that whoever carries it after us, government or market, can afford to keep going?
500 projects, one signal
Our first round of analytics gave us the 10K Rule. Projects that reached more than 10,000 people delivered services at about one-quarter to one-third the cost per service than smaller projects, and program-quality scores did not drop with cost. This is not a mystery: fixed costs (setup, staffing, infrastructure) spread across more people. What is more surprising is that the same pattern held even in fragile and high-risk settings, so long as scale was designed in from the start.