Understanding adaptation, migration, and displacement in communities facing high climate risks
Traditional early warning systems often focus on weather hazards. But CARE Somalia’s research suggests that displacement is frequently the final stage of a process that begins months earlier, as households absorb growing pressure, lose assets, and exhaust informal support systems. Living with climate risk: Mobility and resilience in Somalia examines these pre-displacement signals and what they could mean for anticipatory action, climate resilience, and policy.
About this research
CARE Somalia conducted Displacement Drivers Assessments in five districts between late 2025 and early 2026, examining climate pressures, livelihoods, conflict dynamics, household decision-making, and the different experiences of women and men.
Locations: Afgoye, Beledweyne, Bardhere, Erigavo, and Las’anod
Funding: Royal Danish Embassy to Somalia
Partners: Saferworld, World Food Programme, iRise Hub, WARDI, and WAAPO
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Research findings
CARE Somalia’s assessments identified three measurable thresholds that can signal when households are moving from coping toward displacement.
- Water becomes unaffordable. When 20 liters of water costs more than 50% of a household’s daily wage, families may begin selling livestock, tools, jewelry, and other productive or valuable assets to afford it.
- Families consume the resources they need for the future. Pastoralist families may lose livestock needed to sustain their herds, while farming households may resort to eating the seed intended for the next planting season.
- Informal credit disappears. When local traders stop extending credit, movement can follow within 48 to 72 hours. At that point, the window for helping families remain safely in place may have closed.
From climate hazard to household signals
Across the five districts studied, households moved through a recurring progression:
- Stress absorption
- Asset erosion
- Social support breakdown
- Movement
While the pace and dominant pressures varied, the pattern suggests that anticipatory-action systems could pair weather forecasts with household-level signals such as water prices, livestock conditions, seed consumption, and access to informal credit.
Displacement does not affect everyone in a household equally
The research also found significant differences in who moves, when they move, and who has the least ability to make those decisions. Young men often move first in search of work, while other household members may remain longer to protect assets or care for children.
Young women ages 18 to 35 were among the most constrained. Restrictions on independent travel, safety risks along migration routes, and social norms can limit their ability to decide whether or when to move. The findings suggest that programs built around a single household-level trigger, or delivered only through the head of household, risk missing people facing the greatest constraints.
Acting before displacement becomes inevitable
These findings point to an opportunity to expand anticipatory action beyond weather forecasts alone. Monitoring household-level signals could help responders identify when families are losing the resources that allow them to remain safely at home — and act earlier. Once movement becomes unavoidable, the priority can shift toward helping people move safely.