Executive summary
Climate-related shocks and stresses, such as droughts and floods, are intensifying the existing crisis of internal displacement in Somalia. In 2023 alone, 2.2 million Somalis were displaced. Expectations about women’s and men’s roles, clan relationships, and access to informal credit further complicated how families and individuals were able to respond to climate-related pressures. In Somalia, fewer than 1% of households access formal financial services; the dominant credit channel is informal lending from local traders and Micro, Small and Medium Enterprises (MSMEs).
The breakdown of these informal credit relationships is a key household-level pre-displacement signal (World Bank, 2023; IMF, 2024).
This brief draws on five district-level Displacement Drivers Assessments (DDAs) focused on the distinct experiences of women and men, a cross-district CARE Somalia Learning Brief, and national data from the World Bank’s Country Climate and Development Report (CCDR) on Somalia to provide an analysis of the drivers and patterns of displacement in the country. To address these challenges, the brief recommends prioritizing integrated interventions designed around the distinct needs, responsibilities, and social constraints experienced by women and girls, strengthening Anticipatory Action (AA) and climate resilience at both community and policy levels. By informing CARE program design, supporting policy engagement, and guiding resource mobilization, these recommendations aim to reduce displacement risk and improve outcomes for Somali populations facing the greatest risks of displacement.
The brief presents an “evidence narrative” that connects internal movement among Somalis with the factors that shape displacement following the impacts of climate shocks. It is written for climate-finance and anticipatory-action donors, Somali federal and sub-national governments, peer INGOs, and the CARE network.
Key findings
- Displacement in the five profiled districts follows a four-stage progression, observable months before actual movement.
- Three measurable thresholds mark the points at which households cross from habitual residence into displacement: water affordability, livelihood viability, and informal trader credit withdrawal.
- Movement is not uniform within a household; young women aged 18 to 35 are systematically the most constrained, frequently remaining in the home while other household members begin to move.
- The four-stage progression and three thresholds are consistent across the five districts, while dominant stressors and the speed of progression vary by district.
- Pre-displacement programming designed around household-level signals fits within the provisions and language of Somalia’s existing climate-policy infrastructure (NCCP, NDC 3.0, NAP) and climate-finance pathways. These findings suggest that programs using household economic and social warning signs to act before displacement occurs are not yet funded or implemented through Somalia’s climate-finance system. The evidence in this brief makes a strong case for including them.